
FitchRatings raised its fertiliser price outlook, forecasting Moroccan phosphate rock at $270/t for end-2022, up from $200/t, and $160/t for 2023. Ammonia forecasts were raised to $1,000/t from $850/t, citing high gas prices and supply constraints.
OCP's export limits and higher ammonia costs point to firmer phosphate and nitrogen input prices, raising production costs for feed grains and oilseeds.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.