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Fitch Ratings cut its 2025 ammonia price assumption on higher supply, including new Gulf Coast capacity and resumed Russian exports via Taman and Ust-Luga. It raised 2025-2026 assumptions for urea, phosphate rock, DAP and potash on tighter supply, geopolitical risks and Chinese export restrictions.
Upgraded fertilizer price assumptions from a major rating agency signal expectations of firmer urea, DAP and potash costs near term. This supports higher input costs for feed-grain production.
fitchratings.comFitch WireJun 26, 2025After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
