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Rabobank's semi-annual outlook says global fertilizer markets are entering a contraction phase as high prices erode affordability. It forecasts weaker demand in 2025 and a sharper decline in 2026, with urea consumption falling and phosphate consumption about 4% lower globally.
Lower fertilizer demand in 2026 eases the cost pressure on crop input budgets and could soften urea and phosphate prices, although tight supply from China limits the downside. Weaker input use can also affect future crop yields and grain balances.
rabobank.comBruno Fonseca AnalystOct 28, 2025After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rabobank's outlook for a contraction phase and roughly 4% lower phosphate consumption signals weakening demand sentiment that supports a price decline.
Rabobank's outlook for a demand contraction (phosphate consumption down about 4%) published 2025-10-28 would weigh on DAP sentiment shortly before the drop.
