
ABARES cut the national wheat crop a further 4%, or nearly 700,000 tonnes, to 15.17 million tonnes, the smallest since 2007-08. Lower yields in NSW and WA and wheat cut for hay drove the reduction, partly offset by better Victorian yields.
Canola output was raised slightly to 2.3 million tonnes.
The smallest Australian wheat crop in over a decade reduces export availability and supports wheat prices. A modest canola increase adds limited supply to the oilseed meal market.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.