USDA's December WASDE lowered 2021/22 US wheat exports by 20 million bushels to 840 million and raised ending stocks 15 million to 598 million. Global wheat supplies were lifted by 4.3 million tons to 1,067.5 million, while global coarse grain production rose 2.7 million tons.
US corn and soybean balance sheets were unchanged.
Higher global wheat supplies and reduced US export competitiveness point to lower wheat prices, while steady corn and soy balances offer little directional signal for feed grains.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.