
USDA's September WASDE raised 2024/25 US corn production 39 million bushels to 15.186 billion, with yield up 0.5 bushel to a record 183.6 bpa, above trade expectations. Soybean production was trimmed 3 million bushels, and wheat production was unchanged month over month.
A larger corn crop than the trade expected adds to US feed grain supply and weighs on corn prices. The soybean cut is modestly supportive for soybean meal costs.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.