◂ Event Timeline

Feb 11, 2022REPORTBrazil

Conab Lowers Brazil's 2021/22 Soybean Production 15 Million Tons

Conab cut its 2021/22 Brazil soybean estimate by 15 million tons to 125.47 million, citing a severe southern drought. The corn estimate was trimmed 0.56 million tons to 112.34 million.

Soybean yields in the hardest-hit areas fell 60-80%.

WHY IT MATTERS

A 15 million ton soybean cut removes a large share of Brazil's export supply, supporting soybean and meal prices. Feed buyers face higher protein meal costs as global soy supplies tighten.

AFFECTSSoybeans▲Soybean Meal▲

SOURCE
soybeansandcorn.comFeb 11, 2022

Price reaction & history

Soybeans▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.6%5d +1.1%20d +7.4%

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-5.3%
Sep 12, 2019USDA Lowers Corn, Soybean Production and Yield - ProAg+4.1%
May 10, 2024USDA Lowers Estimates for Brazil Corn and Soy Production+2.0%
Sep 12, 2024Corn Production Pegged Higher, Soybeans Lower+3.5%
Oct 9, 2020USDA Lowers Soybean Ending Stocks, Trims Production+1.2%

Soybean Meal▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.5%5d -1.4%20d +10.3%

After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-5.6%
May 10, 2024USDA Lowers Estimates for Brazil Corn and Soy Production-0.6%
Sep 12, 2024Corn Production Pegged Higher, Soybeans Lower+1.3%
Mar 8, 2024USDA Cuts Brazil Soy Production 1 MMT-1.4%
Mar 8, 2024March WASDE: USDA Steps Down Brazil Soybean Production-1.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Soybean Meal SBM · GP ▸

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