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USDA estimates world wheat production will fall 3.7 percent in 2018/19 to 730.9 million tonnes, with European, Russian and Australian crops down sharply. Ending stocks for the top seven exporters are projected to drop 25 percent to the lowest level in about 11 years.
Kansas City December wheat has nonetheless traded in a narrow range in October.
Tightening exporter stocks support wheat prices over the medium term, though current markets lack a near-term catalyst.
northernag.netOct 23, 2018After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
