
USDA's Winter Wheat Seedings report, released January 10, showed US farmers planted 30.8 million acres of winter wheat for 2020, 7% below the five-year average. Hard red winter plantings fell, with record low acreage in Nebraska and Colorado declines, while soft red winter area increased.
Smaller HRW acreage reduces expected US hard wheat supply and supports prices, though prices near production cost limit farmer planting incentives and add to a tighter balance.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.