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The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates Argentina's 2017-18 soybean production at 54 million tonnes, with acreage up 100,000 hectares to 19.3 million but yields falling to 2.8 tonnes per hectare from 2.96. Argentina's soybean export tax will be cut by 0.5 percentage points monthly starting January 2018, and farmers are reportedly holding supplies in silo bags to wait for lower taxes.
A smaller crop estimate combined with farmer hoarding ahead of the export tax cut tightens near-term export availability of soybeans, meal and oil, which supports world soy product prices. The gradual tax reduction may later release stored supply and cap rallies.
world-grain.comSusan ReidyJun 30, 2017After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
