USDA data show U.S. hard red winter wheat production at 726 million bushels, up about 20% from last year, with the largest HRW supply in three years. Soft red winter output is notably lower and winter wheat harvest was 40% complete by June 24, ahead of the five-year average.
A large HRW crop shifts class spreads and export dynamics, pressuring Kansas City wheat prices and making HRW more available for export.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.