Production Update: USDA Confirms High U.S. Wheat Yields Offset Reduced Planted Area

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Feb 5, 2019USW Reports on World Wheat Production and Exports - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.3%
• Sep 30, 2025Wheat Falling as USDA Raises Production+0.4%
• Jan 16, 2025EU Cereal Production Climbs As Wheat Yields Surge - Finimize+0.0%
• May 12, 2019Global wheat production set to hit record 777Mt: USDA - Grain Central-0.4%
• Sep 17, 2025France Updates Wheat and Corn Production Forecasts for 2025+0.4%

After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Feb 5, 2019USW Reports on World Wheat Production and Exports - U.S. Wheat Associates-3.3%
• Sep 30, 2025Wheat Falling as USDA Raises Production-2.5%
• Aug 7, 2020High wheat production ensures Australia’s grain security in COVID era - Grain Central+1.9%
• Feb 2, 2017Wheat producers facing below cost of production prices+0.3%
• Jan 12, 2023Corn and soybean production down in 2022, USDA reports Corn stocks down, soybean stocks down from year earlier Winter Wheat Seedings up for 2023+1.2%