
U.S. Wheat Associates released a market analysis ahead of its board meetings, updating 2018/19 world wheat supply and demand. It reports Canadian wheat production at 31.8 million tonnes, up 6% year over year, with durum output up 16%, and notes quality shifts in Canadian grades.
Larger Canadian supplies add competition for US wheat in export markets, which is mildly bearish for wheat prices and supports cheaper feed wheat alternatives.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.