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USDA's Prospective Plantings report put 2026 all-wheat plantings at 43.8M acres, the lowest since records began in 1919 and 1.0M acres below trade expectations. Winter wheat conditions in southern Plains states continued to deteriorate, with Kansas good/excellent ratings down 20 points this year, and HRW futures hit their highest spot level since June 2024.
Smaller acreage plus Plains drought points to a smaller US wheat crop, supporting wheat prices and feed-grain substitution costs. Market reaction is bullish across SRW, HRW and spring classes.
crmagri.comMike VerdinMar 31, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, SOY moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 3,207 past report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record-low US wheat plantings and deteriorating Kansas HRW conditions tightened expected supply and pushed HRW futures to their highest since mid-2024, which supports the price move.
