USDA's ERS May 2025 Oil Crops Outlook projects US soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 falling 55 million bushels to 295 million. The decline reflects record domestic crush of 2.49 billion bushels, with soybean planted area down 3.6 million acres to 83.5 million acres.
Soybean oil use for biomass-based diesel is projected to rise 6%.
Tighter US soybean stocks, record crush and higher biofuel demand for soybean oil support soybean and soybean oil prices, which in turn shapes the cost and availability of meal for feed buyers.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.