NOPA March soybean crush of 177.98 million bushels came in slightly below the average estimate of 179.18 million. Argentina's harvest was 14% complete, well behind the 25% average, and the Buenos Aires exchange raised its crop estimate to 46 million tonnes.
A slightly weak US crush and slow Argentine harvest leave soymeal and oil supplies balanced to tight. Limited upside revisions to Argentine crop size support prices.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.