USDA's North American Grain and Oilseed Crushing Annual Summary raised the 2024/25 global soybean crush forecast by 2.9 million tonnes to a record 352.8 million tonnes. Global soymeal consumption rose 1% and oil consumption rose 2%, while the season-average soybean price was lowered to $9.95 per bushel.
A record global crush adds meal and oil supply, which is bearish for meal prices while supporting soybean oil demand and soybean crush margins.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.