
US wheat futures edged lower after the USDA cut its 2020/21 global wheat ending stocks forecast to 301.19 million tonnes, citing Chinese feed wheat demand. The USDA also raised its global corn ending stocks forecast to 287.67 million tonnes, above analyst expectations.
The lower global wheat stocks are supportive for wheat, but the higher corn stocks are bearish and limited wheat's decline. Net, the report offers mixed price signals across grains.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.