
The European Commission cut its 2020/21 EU-27 soft wheat crop forecast to 117.2 million tonnes from 121.5 million, a second straight monthly reduction of over 4 million tonnes. Output would be more than 10% below last year's 130.9 million, with France projected at 30.3 million tonnes, down 12%.
Export projections were also trimmed to 25.0 million tonnes from 26.5 million.
A smaller EU crop and lower export availability tighten world wheat supply and support Euronext and global wheat prices, which feeds into higher wheat costs for feed formulators.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.