
Strategie Grains cut its 2020 soft wheat forecast for the EU plus Britain to 128.0 million tonnes, 13% below 2019. It also lowered its 2020/21 EU-plus-Britain export forecast to 23.1 million tonnes from 25.3 million.
Barley output was left unchanged at 64.2 million tonnes.
Repeated downgrades to EU and UK wheat output and exports signal tighter European supply, which supports wheat prices and increases import demand.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.