Analysts at Oklahoma Farm Report discussed the December WASDE, which lowered U.S. corn exports by 75 million bushels and raised ending stocks to 1.257 billion. World wheat ending stocks were slightly lowered, with Argentina's production cut 3 million tonnes to 12.5 million and Canada's lowered 1.2 million to 33.8 million.
Australia's crop was raised 2.1 million tonnes to 36.6 million.
Lower Argentine and Canadian wheat output supports global wheat prices, while the outlook for 2023 corn acreage and yields is a key factor for future corn price direction.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.