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USDA's April 9 WASDE report left U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks roughly 11 million and 22 million bushels above pre-report estimates, and world corn and wheat stocks 1.5 and 4.5 million tonnes above trade estimates. U.S. soybean ending stocks came in at 895 million bushels, slightly below the 913 million average estimate.
Prices were muted, with corn unchanged, soybeans unchanged and wheat down 5 to 6 cents.
Larger-than-expected U.S. and world corn and wheat supplies point to continued pressure on feed grain prices. Soybeans were little changed because the stocks miss was small.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
