
The USDA August forecast puts world wheat production at 807 million tonnes for 2025/26, 7 million more than last season, with consumption near 810 million tonnes. Stratégie Grains estimates EU winter wheat at 133.7 million tonnes, 17% higher than a year earlier, with France, Germany, Romania and Poland all posting larger crops.
A larger world and EU wheat crop with ending stocks steady or lower adds supply to export markets and generally pressures wheat prices lower.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.