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Expana raised its EU soft wheat 2025/26 estimate to a record 136.1 million tons, 3.3 million above its August projection, on bigger-than-forecast harvests in central and northern EU countries. It also lifted its EU barley outlook to 56.2 million tons, the highest since 2008.
A record EU wheat and barley crop adds to a global supply glut, adding downward pressure on wheat and feed grain prices and making it harder for EU exporters to sell surplus.
agcanada.comAGCanadaSep 11, 2025After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
