
A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report projects Australian barley production at a record 15 million tonnes and wheat at 36 million tonnes, the third-largest in the country's history. The barley forecast was raised 2 million tonnes from the prior estimate, and Australian barley exports are projected at 8.3 million tonnes.
Better growing conditions and above-average rainfall in July and August drove the upgrades.
Larger Australian supplies of both wheat and barley add competition in global export markets and point to softer feed grain prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.