
USDA projected 2022 US corn production at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3%, due to slow planting. Winter wheat production was forecast at 1.17 billion bushels, down 8%, amid extreme Plains drought and the largest abandonment since 2002.
Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas production all fell sharply.
Lower corn and HRW wheat supplies tighten feed and milling grain balances, supporting prices and raising feed costs for buyers. Spring wheat recovery only partly offsets the decline.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.