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Aug 12, 2021REPORTUS

USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates due to drought

USDA's August Crop Production report projected the average corn yield at 174.6 bu/acre, below the trade estimate of 177.6 and July's 179.5, and the soybean yield at 50 bu/acre. USDA cut 2021-22 corn ending stocks by 190 million bushels to 1.2 billion, and Chicago corn futures jumped about 5% after the release.

WHY IT MATTERS

A bigger-than-expected yield cut and sharply lower ending stocks tighten the corn balance sheet and lift feed grain prices. Soybean meal and feed costs are likely to firm as the smaller crop expectations are priced in.

AFFECTSCorn▲Soybeans▲Soybean Meal▲DDGS▲

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comBen NuelleAug 12, 2021

Price reaction & history

Corn▲bullishSO FAR1d +1.2%5d +0.7%20d -7.7%

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

Sep 12, 2019USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates | 2019-09-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.8%
Jul 10, 2020USDA holds corn and soybean yields steady in latest WASDE | 2020-07-10 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.9%
Mar 29, 2018Farmers plan to cut corn, soybean acreage, USDA says | 2018-03-29 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.8%
May 12, 2022USDA warns on corn, winter wheat crops due to weather | 2022-05-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.3%
Apr 9, 2026USDA raises price estimates for several commodities | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.9%

Soybeans▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -3.4%20d -10.4%

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

Sep 12, 2019USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates | 2019-09-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.1%
Mar 29, 2018Farmers plan to cut corn, soybean acreage, USDA says | 2018-03-29 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.3%
May 31, 2023USDA lowers ag trade forecast for FY 2023 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.4%
Apr 9, 2026USDA raises price estimates for several commodities | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.4%
Dec 8, 2023USDA trims forecast for soybean, wheat supplies | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.2%

Soybean Meal▲bullishSO FAR1d 0.0%5d +0.4%20d -4.3%

After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Sep 12, 2019USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates | 2019-09-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.7%
Apr 9, 2026USDA raises price estimates for several commodities | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+5.8%
Nov 8, 2018USDA lowers 2018 corn, soybean crop estimates - Brownfield Ag News-0.7%
Sep 12, 2018USDA Pushes Corn, Soybean Yield Estimates Higher-4.4%
Jun 30, 2023More corn, less soybeans revealed in USDA crop acreage, grain stocks reports | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.6%

DDGS▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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