USDA forecast larger wheat stocks despite war, but warns of uncertainty

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 31, 2023USDA lowers ag trade forecast for FY 2023 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.2%
• Dec 9, 2021USDA maintains corn, soybean stocks estimates, gives bearish wheat figures in December WASDE | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-6.6%
• Mar 29, 2018Farmers plan to cut corn, soybean acreage, USDA says | 2018-03-29 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.5%
• Dec 19, 2025USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand+0.9%
• Dec 12, 2022Wheat prices fall despite a downgrade in the USDA’s global production forecast+10.5%

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

• May 12, 2022USDA warns on corn, winter wheat crops due to weather | 2022-05-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.3%
• Dec 8, 2023USDA trims forecast for soybean, wheat supplies | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-2.7%
• Jul 10, 2020USDA holds corn and soybean yields steady in latest WASDE | 2020-07-10 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.9%
• Mar 29, 2018Farmers plan to cut corn, soybean acreage, USDA says | 2018-03-29 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.8%
• Sep 12, 2019USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates | 2019-09-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.8%