
USDA's October WASDE raised the 2021/22 U.S. soybean yield to 51.5 bushels per acre from 50.6 and lifted soybean ending stocks by 135 million bushels to 320 million. Corn yield was raised slightly to 176.5 bushels per acre, and corn ending stocks rose to about 1.5 billion bushels.
The large upward revision to soybean supply removes most of the tightness in the balance sheet, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal. Ample corn supplies also reduce pressure on feed grain prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.