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DTN analyst Joel Karlin examines historical changes between USDA's June and July WASDE yield estimates for corn and soybeans. He notes very high crop condition ratings this season and talk of record yields.
The piece asks whether exceptionally strong early-July ratings will prompt USDA to raise its yield estimates before the August report.
Expectations of higher USDA yields would add to already ample supply expectations, which is bearish for corn and soybean prices and therefore for feed ingredient costs.
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinJun 29, 2018After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
