
USDA's July WASDE raised U.S. 2018-19 soybean ending stocks by 5.3 million tonnes as export projections fell 6.8 million tonnes on U.S.-China trade concerns. USDA also raised Brazil's soybean exports by 2.1 million tonnes as Chinese buyers shifted to Brazilian supply.
Brazil gaining share of Chinese demand supports Brazilian soybean prices and premiums, while U.S. beans face lower export demand and weaker prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.