
USDA's June WASDE raised 2020/21 beginning corn stocks to 2.1 billion bushels and ending stocks to 3.32 billion, slightly under the trade's 3.36 billion expectation. Corn used for ethanol was cut by 50 million bushels, and soybean 2020/21 ending stocks fell to 395 million bushels.
The ethanol cut signals weak fuel demand from the pandemic, which keeps corn demand soft, while lower soybean carryout is mildly supportive for soy complex prices. Traders showed little reaction, so the net price effect is limited.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.