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USDA's May WASDE pegged 2022/23 US corn ending stocks at 1.417 billion bushels and 2023/24 at 2.222 billion, both above trade estimates. Soybean ending stocks were 335 million bushels for 2023/24, well above expectations, while US wheat ending stocks were 556 million bushels, below trade forecasts.
World stock estimates were also revised.
Higher-than-expected corn and soybean stocks point to surplus supplies and lower prices, while the smaller wheat carryout is supportive for wheat.
agriculture.comMay 12, 2023After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WASDE ending stocks for 2022/23 and 2023/24 came in above trade estimates, a bearish surprise for corn.
USDA stocks for 2022/23 and 2023/24 came in above trade estimates, a bearish surprise adding to supply pressure.
Reports soybean ending stocks well above trade expectations, confirming the bearish surprise in the WASDE.
