A farmdoc daily outlook by Todd Hubbs discusses the USDA's September forecast for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production. It reports soybean production at 4,431 million bushels, up 50 million from August, and steady December corn futures near $3.54.
A larger USDA soybean estimate increases expected supply and supports a bearish price bias for soybeans, while corn prices held in a narrow range.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.