USDA's January 2017 report projects the 2016/17 US soybean crop at 4,307 million bushels, with 1,930 million crushed and 2,030 million exported, all well above prior years. Domestic soybean meal production is forecast at 46,311 thousand short tons, also higher than previous marketing years.
Ample US soybean and meal supplies point to lower meal prices and cheaper protein for feed buyers. The bearish supply outlook weighs on soybean and meal values unless weather or demand shifts.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.