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The partial government shutdown has halted USDA's crop production reports, including the January 11 Crop Production report that would have updated the 2018 corn and soybean crop sizes. Traders said the data gap made markets choppy, and soybean prices fell on January 10 amid disappointment over no new Chinese purchases.
Without official crop sizes, traders cannot price the true size of the 2019 supply, and a catch-up report could move prices sharply. Feed buyers face higher volatility and less reliable price signals until funding is restored.
farmprogress.comForrest LawsJan 16, 2019After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
