
The June WASDE was described as neutral for soybeans and corn, with USDA projecting 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks at 455 million bushels and a $11.20 price. Soybean meal and oil forecasts were unchanged at $330 per short ton and 42 cents per pound.
Unchanged USDA price and use forecasts mean the report gave little directional signal, leaving soybean and meal prices driven by stocks and export expectations.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.