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A farmdoc daily outlook says that recent US-China trade negotiations supported soybean prices and raised hopes of cutting the 910 million bushel ending stock projection. It also reports that crush through January is near 896 million bushels, with USDA's full-year projection requiring a slower pace over the remaining months.
Strong crush and hopes for China buying could tighten US soybean stocks, which supports soybean prices, though meeting USDA's crush forecast requires a slowdown in the remaining months.
doi.orgHubbs, ToddJan 1, 2019After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
