The estimated Central Illinois soybean crush margin rose 4% in the week to May 1 to $1.29 per bushel, as meal and oil revenue gained faster than soybean costs. NOPA reported that US crush hit a record for March at 181.374 million bushels.
Strong crush demand supports soybean meal and oil prices, though margins remain 28% below last year, which may limit further crush expansion.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.