
USDA's August 2026 report raised the new-crop soybean crush estimate by about 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion, and raised 2025-26 crush by 5 million bushels to 2.655 billion. Nearby September soybeans rose 13.75 cents to $11.65 per bushel, and September soybean oil gained more than half a cent to 69.16 cents per pound.
Higher USDA crush estimates signal stronger soybean meal and oil output and robust crush demand, supporting soybean and soyoil prices despite a record crop projection.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.