
A USDA FAS GAIN report dated March 19 forecasts China's 2025-26 soybean consumption at 124.4 million tonnes and crush at 101 million tonnes, both up from 2024-25. Protein meal feed use is forecast to rise modestly to 101.8 million tonnes, while soybean imports are seen at 106 million tonnes.
Higher Chinese crush and imports support soybean and soymeal demand from exporters, particularly Brazil and the US. Slowing meal demand growth from a shift toward poultry and aquaculture limits the upside for meal prices.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.