USDA's FAS forecasts China's 2017-18 soybean production at 14.1 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes as reduced government support for corn encourages more oilseed planting. Chinese oilseed imports are forecast at a record 91.5 million tonnes in 2017-18, up 3 million tonnes.
Record Chinese oilseed import demand, which exceeds the growth in domestic output, supports global soybean and meal demand. This is a bullish signal for export-oriented soybean prices, with South American and US supplies filling the gap.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.