
USDA's Economic Research Service estimated that U.S. agriculture lost $27.2 billion from retaliatory tariffs during the 2018-2019 trade war, with over 70% of losses in soybeans. The report details China's tariffs on soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal and biodiesel.
The estimate quantifies past export losses and reinforces the sensitivity of soybean demand to tariff policy, though it does not change current flows.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.