
USDA's September WASDE cut the average U.S. soybean yield to 50.1 bushels per acre and lowered production to 4.146 billion bushels. Ending stocks were projected at 220 million bushels, and the season-average price was raised to $12.90 per bushel.
A smaller crop and tighter ending stocks support soybean prices, though lower crush and exports partly offset the effect.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.