
USDA's January reports showed Dec. 1 soybean stocks at 2.895 billion bushels, 58 million below trade expectations.
NASS survey data also cut planted and harvested soybean acres by about 300,000 and trimmed the national yield by 0.4 bushel to 52.1 bpa. Old-crop futures rose 22 to 29 cents and new-crop futures gained 12 to 18 cents.
The production cut flowed through to ending stocks that were surprisingly tight, supporting soybean and feed prices. Buyers of soybean meal should expect firmer near-term costs.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.