
USDA's April WASDE moved 35 million bushels of soybean exports into crush, leaving 2025/26 ending stocks unchanged and raising the season average soybean price to $10.30/bu. Soybean oil prices hit three-year highs and Midwest crush margins reached a 2.5-year high after EPA's final RVO guidance and energy gains tied to Persian Gulf supply disruptions.
May 2026 soybean futures closed near $11.655/bu.
Stronger crush demand and higher soybean oil prices lift soy complex values, while the USDA price increase signals firmer farm-level prices ahead.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's shift of soybean exports into crush, plus EPA RVO guidance and Gulf-related energy gains, supports crush and biofuel demand for soyoil and underpins the elevated price level.