
USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service released county-level yield estimates on March 21 showing the 2018 US average corn yield at 176.4 bushels per acre, slightly below 2017. Yield declines were concentrated in the Southeast after hurricanes and in the western Corn Belt after harvest-season precipitation.
Confirmed 2018 yield data is largely backward-looking, so the price effect is modest, though it reinforces that the 2018 crop was not especially tight.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.