
Illinois reached a record state corn yield of 215 bushels per acre in 2022, 15 bushels above its trend. Drought in other states kept the U.S. corn and soybean yields below trend, and soybean yields were lackluster in many states.
A strong Illinois crop offset losses elsewhere, so national supply stayed tighter than Illinois alone suggests. Final NASS estimates in January could still shift the national balance that sets corn and soybean prices.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.