
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazil corn estimate by 2 million tons to 134 million tons, with a neutral bias. Rainfall improved soil moisture for southern safrinha corn but slowed soybean harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul, and USDA kept its Brazil corn estimate at 132 million tons.
A larger Brazilian corn crop than USDA's estimate increases export competition, which is mildly bearish for corn and feed grain prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.