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USDA's ERS December 14 oil crops outlook trimmed the 2017/18 US soybean export forecast by 25 million bushels to 2.225 billion as sales and shipments lag. Ending stocks were raised 20 million bushels to 445 million after a seed-use increase, and the season-average farm price range was narrowed to $8.60-$10.00.
The report also raised Brazil and Argentina export forecasts and noted record October crush.
Lower US export demand and higher ending stocks weigh on soybean prices, while competition from Brazilian and Argentine supplies keeps US market share under pressure. Crush demand remains steady, which limits the downside.
lancasterfarming.comDec 23, 2017After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
